Thursday, January 10, 2008

NESTLE (M) BHD (4707) NESTLE

Business Summary:

Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of food products in Malaysia. The company's products include ice-creams, drinks, liquid milk and juices, instant coffee and chocolate confectionery products, instant noodles, culinary products, cereals, yogurt and related products. It also offers sweetened condensed milk, and powdered milk and drinks. The company's brand names include MILO, NESCAFE, MAGGI, NESPRAY, and KIT KAT. Nestle (Malaysia) also exports its products primarily to South East Asian and Middle East countries. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad is a subsidiary of Nestle S.A.

Beverages

MILO - relaunched of PROTOMALT to enhance the beverage’s nutritional profile, the launched of 3in1 Mocha and 3in1 Light. MILO launched a new public service campaign, the “Grow with Sports”. The year saw MILO recording an all time high in terms of market share, which reflects the continued confidence and support for the brand that is a household name.

Nescafe - the brand introduced new variants of the easy-mix instant coffee - NESCAFÉ 2in1 for consumers who prefer coffee without sugar and Nescafé Light Roast for those seeking a milder, smoother cup of coffee. The premium NESCAFÉ GOLD brand re-launch of the improved NESCAFÉ 3in1, added to the brand’s aroma of success.

Food

MAGGI continued to grow from strength to strength and remains a market leader in the noodles, tomato ketchup, chilli sauce and stocks categories, and has managed to withstand strong competition in the form of imports from other ASEAN countries.

Milks

In line with the focus on Nutrition, Health and Wellness, innovation and renovation activities were carried out, which resulted in the launch of products with added benefits such as NESTLÉ
OMEGA PLUS with ACTICOL (helps reduce cholesterol), NESVITA Cereal with reduced sugar, NESVITA 3in1 and NESTUM Oats.

Chilled Dairy

The Chilled Dairy Business Unit achieved strong growth in both the Yogurt and Yogurt Drink categories, aided by new product launches. The marketing campaign for Bliss Low Fat Yogurt Drink helped to nurture stronger consumer awareness and pushed the category to achieve strong double digit growth. The launch of the Bliss Light Yogurt Drink, along with the introduction of new variants such as the Yogurt Drink with 0% fat & 0% cholesterol, further amplified the category’s market share.

Ice Cream

NESTLÉ Ice Cream had another good year during the period under review, maintaining its market leadership. As a result of product innovation in the cone range, DRUMSTICK INFERNO and DRUMSTICK KIT KAT were launched, achieving double digit growth and establishing DRUMSTICK as the fastest growing brand in the ice cream portfolio. Similar strides were made in the Take Home range with the launch of LA CREMERIA 800ml which offers consumers a view of the appetising rosettes and generous sauce through its transparent lid.

Chocolate & Confectionery

Strong volume growth was recorded for both the major brands - KIT KAT and SMARTIES - in the domestic market as well as in the export markets. In the case of KIT KAT, this was achieved via core equity building communications as well as packaging renovation. In addition to this, the introduction of the KIT KAT BITES format in Thailand also proved to be very successful, adding to the growth volume for the category. SMARTIES, meanwhile, generated strong sales during the year, boosted by innovative ideas including an on pack character programme, which was
supported by a 360 degree award-winning campaign.

Nutrition

Infant Nutrition launched NESTLÉ Rice Porridge in mid 2006, the first dry savoury food for babies in Malaysia. The quick and easy to prepare meal - which is rich in texture and fortified with 15 vitamins and minerals essential for growth and development - was well received by mothers. NESLAC 1+ and 3+ Growing Up Milk was re-launched during the period under review, boasting a brand new look aimed at further strengthening the brand’s presence in the premium segment.

The launch of NUTREN UNTUK DIABETIK 900g and NUTREN BALANCE Cereal Bar provided a healthy and tasty nutritional option for consumers seeking to manage their blood sugar levels. In the Performance Nutrition segment meanwhile, ongoing renovation to deliver products that meet the needs of individuals with active lifestyles, resulted in the introduction of POWERBAR TRIPLE THREAT bar – boasting the same performance as the POWERBAR but tasting like a cereal bar. The brand continued to support major sporting events in Malaysia, and provided a much needed energy boost to national athletes under the Malaysian Sports Council programme.

Food Services

To expand the out-of-home channel further, new emphasis was placed on the new product offerings and an increased presence for beverages with machine placements in the Office Coffee Service (OCS) channel.

Among the new entrants for the year were mixes and sauces such as MAGGI Nasi Goreng Cina, Nasi Goreng Kampung, Seafood Imperial Sauce, Curry Chicken Paste, Sambal Tumis Paste, Perencah Ayam Goreng, and customised salsa sauce for McDonald’s. New beverages introduced include Kiwi Fruit, Mixed Fruit and NESCAFÉ Latte. In line with the Group’s move towards Nutrition, Health and Wellness, the sugar content in most of the beverages has been reduced, while maintaining their taste and quality.


Financial Performance:

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average


ROE 43.15 40.43 48.81 49.74 47.26 45.88 > 10 (strong)

ROA 13.05 11.95 17.33 19.68 18.11 16.02 > 10

Total Liabilities : Equity = 55.44 : 44.56

D/E Ratio = 0.2

P/E Ratio = 22

DY = 3.9%

Average Revenue Growth Rate = 7.2%

Average Earnings Growth Rate = 8.5%

Supporting Value:

1. NTA per share (as at 30/9/07) = RM2.50

2. The EPF department increase the share holding.

3. Strong efficiency of the management level. (can also refer to the increasing ROE)

4. Strong cash flow with RM46million on hand.

Investment Risk:

1. The increasing cost of raw material.

2. The rising competition of local players like Power Root, Mamee, Super........

Conclusion:

Nestle is a company that have a strong market penetration in Malaysia market. It achieved a great ROE for the past 10 year with an average of 40%. It shows a efficient management team. These is a challeging year for Nestle with the high inflation and cost of raw material. For the recent price, it is overvalued. I recommend to put it into watchlist. (Try to check-out the rising competitor - Natbio, which is the owner of power root. It achieve a strong growth, especially the Alicafe, Pearl, and the new oligo coco)

26 comments:

Freeman said...

it's a gd share which i've looking on it for quite some time. but the PE, to me... is a little bit 2 high. so i choose to wait
:p

jeff7 said...

Dear Freeman,

You are true, it is currently overvalue.Have to wait for a better deal.

If freeman have any stock to recommend and share, can let me know. Then we can study on it together.

Wish you all the best!

Regards,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

thanks man...u do a great job to posting Nestle here! lol, btw, p/e is high bcoz investors know this is a very good share, they r confident to hold the share no matter bull or bear market..try to study the historical p/e of nestle and u will find out that it is hard to wait this kind of share to drop p/e below 20....^^

jeff7 said...

No thanks man. You are welcome. Wish you a good luck ya.

Regards,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

hei, dude...time for 'genting' analysis..^^, btw, what shares r u holding currently?

Anonymous said...

Hi jeff7, i'm a new learner in FA. i wonder if you could give me a pointer?

my question --> since every company is having different fiscal year with different quarters, how do i compare them to its industry average? For example, ABC's fiscal year end on 30 JUN and it has just released its 2008 1st quarter report(30 SEPTEMBER 2008), while XYZ's fiscal year end on 31 OCTOBER and it has just released its 4th quarter report(31 OCTOBER 2008).

In other words, should i use same quarter or date from both companies for comparison?

Thankyou so much!

From humble FA learner.

jeff7 said...

Dear 红鸡兄,

I am a bit busy these few days. Will updates you the Genting analysis soon.

I have almost sold all my overvalue stocks. I currently hold Keladi, and planning to hold more. The stocks under my watchlist are Cepatwawasan, RCI, MFCB & DXN.

Ready your cash, the next entry point is near!

Regards,
Jeff

jeff7 said...

Dear e.b,

First of all thanks for your comments.

(Let's assume the two companies that you choosed are in the same industry and their business are the same or very close.)

In my opinion, you should choose the same or the close quarter which can help you to do comparison for the two companies. Let's take your example, ABC's fiscal year end on 30 JUN and it has just released its 2008 1st quarter report(30 SEPTEMBER 2008), while XYZ's fiscal year end on 31 OCTOBER and it has just released its 4th quarter report(31 OCTOBER 2008).

It's mean, you can take the 1st quarter (1/7-30/9) result of company ABC compare to 4th quarter (1/8-31/10) result of company XYZ. ( 1 month different). If you can get the monthly result, the comparison will be more accurate, but it is hard to get the monthly result from the company unless you know someone who work in the company itself.

Hopefully my answer can give you some idea.

Keep on study & research before you enter the stock market! Ready your cash the next entry point is just round the corner!

Regards,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

thanks man! support u ! ^^

jeff7 said...

Haha, Thanks Bro!

e.b said...

Hi Jeff,

Thanks for your advice. It definitely helps a lot! One more questions though, how do you calculate EPS growth rate (eg. Q4 2008 VS Q4 2007) if it involves negative or zero value in one of the quarters? or do you just ignore it?

Thanks again!

jeff7 said...

Hi Eric,

Normally i use the yearly EPS to culculate the EPS growth rate. Why not i use the quarterly? My reason is every industry have their 'peak income season' or 收入周期. Let's say if you are school bag manufacturer, you will know that every enrollment season, your business will achieve a 'peak income season'. The sales will be normal for the remaining season.

I will not ignore the negative figure.(But as a fundamental investor, if you found out a stock which have negative EPS in the historical data, you have to becareful. Please find out the reason for the negative EPS, before you decide to choose on the stock)

The formula: (latest EPS - previous year EPS) / previous year EPS = EPS growth rate

I do recommend to culculate at least 5 years EPS growth rate to justify a stock performance.

Good Investing!

Regards,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

Hi, if you dont mind...
where you got all the figures from?
I mean the profit for 5 years...

jeff7 said...

Dear howhow81,

Thanks for posting your comment.

You can try to search from the book-Stock Performance Guide, Invest Asia Online or business times website.

Good Investing!

Regards,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

good site, with analyst, fundamental mind.like it! can share share ideal.

added your site to my site link
alenkhoo.blogspot.com

happy investing!

Anonymous said...

Hi, nestle is good choice in current inflationary enviroment. As food and beverage are necessary stuff despite rising living cost. However, buying nestle should prepare for long term holding as market is quite saturated and rising competition from other player. In turn of consumer sector, i prefer mamee as it is relatively cheap in turn of valuation but have higher dividend yield compared to nestle. In addition, mamee also is cash-rich company and have adpot share buyback scheme which provide further support and improve PE, ROA and ROE.

Anonymous said...

hi friend, nice to meet u, i am also one of the FA supporter.. i think ur investment skills are almost similar with me. well done.

how old are u now? i am 23..

jeff7 said...

1st of all thanks for alen khoo, hng & hongwei for joining us.

Nestle is a strong & stable company. It can easily shift the cost increment to consumers in order to mantain its profit margin.

Still remember when i wrote the analysis on Nestle, its price is around RM21.35. But now, it have jump to around RM30. It can ignore the unstablelity of politics but keep on moving.

It is agreat pleasure to be its shareholder.

jeff7 said...

Dear Hong Wei,

Nice to meet you. Are you a new investor in the market?

I am only one year older than you. But i am starting investment since i am 17, by using my father acc.

I enjoy investment. I enjoy to source for potential company for investment purposes, cause i will feel that, i have a place to store my money rather than in a bank.

So, in my investment journey, i am keeping on to search for potential company. I have a lot of studies in my hand, but many of them is overvalued even in the current market.

As a fundamental investor, we have to remember one thing "do not loss our money". So we have to make sure the company that we put money on must, is 'must' protect our money.

As a conclusion, investment journey is a non end trip, cause the market is changing every day, it has create opportunity and risk for us. But we have to keep on learning and take the opportunity, ignore the risk.

Let's learn together bro.

Anonymous said...

hi jeff7, i start learn investment from 18, so thats mean u are older then me 2 years old in the market.. haha

i start investment since form lower 6, and i start to know investment is through my father.. at 1st, i follow my father investment method and i made some money at the beginning, but soon i lost it back and even more back to the market..

and i start to realise that there must be some problem in my investment method.. and i start to study investment book..

i found that ur investment method is almost same as buffet and as well as me, b/c i also start to invest in those undervalue stock..

i had checked the background of nestle, i found that its backgroup is really strong with high ROE, but its growth of EPS is very slow and as u say, it is overvalue now which stands 22PE now, if it can go below PE<17, then i will consider to buy it.. haha

jeff, are u working now or still studying? i am still studying.. :)

jeff7 said...

Dear hongwei,

I am working now, in IT Solutions & F&B fields.

Will share with you my latest study soon on two valuable companies which is worth & undervalue. (But need some time to post it, busy with shop opening)

Hope to see your comments soon ya!

I am very happy that have a few good partners that can share and analyse together in my investment journey in order to reduce risk & analysis work load.

Good Investing!

Anonymous said...

jeff7, i am now holding on GENTING and MAYBANK.. can you give some of ur view? :)

Anonymous said...

Dividend yields have become an important incentive for investors, paricularly for companies in matured industries with preceived slower than market average growth. Nestle definitly fall into this category along with BAT, Guiness, JT Int. Because it is so good, most of these company are fully value and shareholder are just like to hold for the stake of ownership. It has cause liquidity problem.

jeff7 said...

Dear hng,

You are true. Most of the shareholders of these companies hold their shares in long-term.So, the liquidity problem incurred.

These kind of companies are cash cow companies, although in the mature market. It will be good for them to enter the new market for their products.

Cheers~~

jeff7 said...

Dear hongwei,

Could you pls give me some time, i will post my comments on the two companies as you mention.

Cheers~~

verena said...

haloo~~ i m a student and conduct a research about nestle maggi.. can u give me some ideas? i need to find the only maggi sales data..but i could not..