A place for "Fundamental Investors" to get together, share their research & study on their ideal stocks in the stock market.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Market is quite but cheap!
Dear all investors,
Many of the stocks in KLCI are in the very attractive price, do u have any in your mind? Try to share it here, let's disscuss together and generate more input.
Good Investing!
Jeff
16 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Well, below here are some stocks which i believe to be promising stocks.
Thanks for your comment. By the way, may i know which is the promising stock (in the long run) in your opinion? Sincerely, i would be very happy if you could share about your view and the way you select an undervalue & growth stock.
Sometimes, "good return" for a stock is depending on what is your entry point. Although the market is dropping these few days, some of the company still over value like IOI.
Everyone have their way of choosing a stock and knowledge in their area. So, that's why some people lost their money in the stock market, but someone can get financial freedom from it.
Yes, you are right. It's depending on individual knowledge, type and level of risk tolerance.
Anyway, i find that it's a good time to shop for undervalued stock. The current stock market depression creates a great opportunity for selecting some good stocks.
By the way, do you mind to share the stocks in your list?
Market expect crude oil may go down to US50-60 due to stronger dollar and weaker demand (US and Japan motor marker post weak result, petrol is most major consumption of crude oil) ; Accordingly, Palmoil expect at RM 1,200-1400.
Unlike crude oil which have demand globally; Palm oil have smaller market with China, Pakistan, Indian as major imported. Indonesian have overtaken Msia as major exporter and a lot of palmoil will mature by 2008-2010 (massive palmoil planted on 2000-2001). In addition, according to cargo survayor, export for first 20day Oct, decrease by >15% than Sept....
For your information, CPO was RM 1100-1400 on 2004-2005; IOI share trade at 1.47-2.2; EPS= 12sen; (2004), 1.70-2.79; EPS=15.8sen (2005); All adjusted for capital distribution and share split. Today btime point out ioi may incur substantial forex loss due to strengthenning US dollar!
What do you feel about IOI Prop (1635)? Have you ever analyze about the company financial statement and the company future business prospect?
From my observation, i noticed that the share price is recently plunged very heavily. The share is currently trade at RM2.70 per share, which is about 75% of the company NTA.
However, the company D/E ratio is seem to be quite high, which is calculated to be 61%. From the company quaterly account balance sheet, i found that the jointly controlled entities increased about 9.5x. Which induced my curiousity about the company that they invested and how they diversify the business. Also, the trade receivables is estimated about 244 million. Which means the payment (term) period is estimated about 4 months.
Thanks for your information. I agree with you, Palm oil will continue to drop.
From i was starting to invest in the stock market, i havent hold once for the palm oil plantation companies. From my point of veiw, palm oil can have a lot of alternative. The most important reason i not dold any of them is palm oil is not like crude oil or gold or other limited resources, palm tree can be planted anytime.
If we went back to history, we can see what happen for the rubber price, going up when crude oil price increase, then many farmer starting cut down their banana trees, coconut trees, rambutan & durian trees, to plant the rubber trees.
Now the situation is the same for palm oil plantation. Many people around me even my relative already bought lands for the palm oil planting when the palm oil price record high. Now the average cost per tonne of palm oil is around RM1200, so now, how much they can gain from this investment? Sad....Even my father also told me that "your so & so already bought a piece of land for palm oil planting, son.......you should do this as well if you do have extra cash" Now my father know the reason why i ignore to do this when my relative invite me to invest.
Palm oil plantation do not have high barrier of entry.
But you will ask me, why in my watchlist do have IOIcorp? For me palm oil industry have it's cycle same like the property industry. If you can get the right time at the right price, it will bring u a great return.
When many small owner cannot sustain in the market (when the palm oil price per tonne below RM1250), some of them will sell the land to big players, some of them will stop all the activities to reduce the cost. The palm oil price will up again in the long run.
Above is just my opinion, hope it will help some of the investors to get some idea when plan to choose this kind of industry.
Will IOICorp price keep on dropping? My answer is yes. I will grap some when it reach my target price. I will not ignore any undervalued stocks that in my watchlist.
Dear Jeff Palm oil probably alrdy start enter into downcycle. I agree with you, when CPO boom, many enter into this field, listed property/industrial stock venture into unrelated core business by acquire land for plant; private company also introduce small palmoil scheme (Gua Musang); listed plantation stock acquire even more land to plant palmoil; Indonesia will produce even more palmoil next year when lot of tree mature..This is viscous cycle!
Next few quarter, when plant stock annonce their result, we will see the vast change in profit. Previuos high premium given by analyst will likely discounted to PE <5-10 as future outlook uncertain. Even IOI have forward selling policy and have lock subtantial CPO at RM 2500-3000, many of the contract believe have defaulted by China/Indian trader.
I think is too early to buy plantation stock at the moment. The prefer time would be after plant stock annonce their earning in next few quarter to get clearer picture on the impact of CPO price to their earning, profit margin and whether or not the production cost is lower in tandem with CPO and crude oil price. Another factor is whether the demand for CPO downstream product: oleochemical; speciality and their margin profit affected. This division particlar crucial for ioi as it consist of nearly 35% revenue.
A person who was starting investment in the stock market since 18 years old, from a person who do not know stock market, to become a fundamental & long term investor.
16 comments:
Well, below here are some stocks which i believe to be promising stocks.
1. MBMR (5983)
2. DRB-HICOM (1619)
3. SRII (9989)
4. MFCB (3069)
5. APM Auto (5015)
6. MPHB (3859)
7. SKP Resources (7155)
8. KOTRA (0002)
9. QSR Brands (9415)
Best regards,
x.cyclone
as far to my concer, all the abovesaid stocks are suck and except QSR which might give alittle good return.
Hi Kinwing,
Thanks for your comment.
By the way, may i know which is the promising stock (in the long run) in your opinion? Sincerely, i would be very happy if you could share about your view and the way you select an undervalue & growth stock.
Best regards,
x.cyclone
Dear x.cyclone & Kin Wing,
Sometimes, "good return" for a stock is depending on what is your entry point. Although the market is dropping these few days, some of the company still over value like IOI.
Everyone have their way of choosing a stock and knowledge in their area. So, that's why some people lost their money in the stock market, but someone can get financial freedom from it.
Good Investing!
Dear Jeff
In current volatile market, i prefer defensive and high yield stock. My current portfolio consist of:
1. Zhulian (est EPS: 18sen, PE=5x, NTA=0.74; dividend policy: 60%, single tier dividend=10.8sen; yield=12%; Payout frequency: quarterly, projected annoncement date: 17 Jan, Apr, July, Oct)
2. PJ development(est EPS: 12sen, PE=4.2x, NTA=1.74; gross dividend= 5 sen; yield=10%; Payout frequency: first and final; projected annoncement date: 29 Oct
3. Amfirst REIT - (est EPS: 9 sen, PE= 10x, NTA=1.04; Payout policy= 95%; income distribution= 8.6 sen; yield=10%; Payout frequency: semi-annual; projected annoncement date: 5 May, Nov)
Hi Jeff,
Yes, you are right. It's depending on individual knowledge, type and level of risk tolerance.
Anyway, i find that it's a good time to shop for undervalued stock. The current stock market depression creates a great opportunity for selecting some good stocks.
By the way, do you mind to share the stocks in your list?
Cheers!
x.cyclone
Dear x.cyclone,
There are a few in my watching list now, but for me there are still overvalued in the current market:
1. IOICorp
2. PBank
3. Natbio
4. Manulfe
5. Pelikan
6. Dialog
7. Kassets
All in the list only Natbio undervalued currently.
All above are just subject to my way of investing. Pls do your own study before make any decision.
Good Investing!
IoICorp is on the right track now.
On the way~~
EPF & Director keep on buying the share in term of big amount.
Almost there!
Market expect crude oil may go down to US50-60 due to stronger dollar and weaker demand (US and Japan motor marker post weak result, petrol is most major consumption of crude oil) ; Accordingly, Palmoil expect at RM 1,200-1400.
Unlike crude oil which have demand globally; Palm oil have smaller market with China, Pakistan, Indian as major imported. Indonesian have overtaken Msia as major exporter and a lot of palmoil will mature by 2008-2010 (massive palmoil planted on 2000-2001). In addition, according to cargo survayor, export for first 20day Oct, decrease by >15% than Sept....
For your information, CPO was RM 1100-1400 on 2004-2005; IOI share trade at 1.47-2.2; EPS= 12sen; (2004), 1.70-2.79; EPS=15.8sen (2005); All adjusted for capital distribution and share split. Today btime point out ioi may incur substantial forex loss due to strengthenning US dollar!
Hi Jeff,
What do you feel about IOI Prop (1635)? Have you ever analyze about the company financial statement and the company future business prospect?
From my observation, i noticed that the share price is recently plunged very heavily. The share is currently trade at RM2.70 per share, which is about 75% of the company NTA.
However, the company D/E ratio is seem to be quite high, which is calculated to be 61%. From the company quaterly account balance sheet, i found that the jointly controlled entities increased about 9.5x. Which induced my curiousity about the company that they invested and how they diversify the business. Also, the trade receivables is estimated about 244 million. Which means the payment (term) period is estimated about 4 months.
Do you have any comment about matter above?
x.cyclone
Dear hng,
Thanks for your information. I agree with you, Palm oil will continue to drop.
From i was starting to invest in the stock market, i havent hold once for the palm oil plantation companies. From my point of veiw, palm oil can have a lot of alternative. The most important reason i not dold any of them is palm oil is not like crude oil or gold or other limited resources, palm tree can be planted anytime.
If we went back to history, we can see what happen for the rubber price, going up when crude oil price increase, then many farmer starting cut down their banana trees, coconut trees, rambutan & durian trees, to plant the rubber trees.
Now the situation is the same for palm oil plantation. Many people around me even my relative already bought lands for the palm oil planting when the palm oil price record high. Now the average cost per tonne of palm oil is around RM1200, so now, how much they can gain from this investment? Sad....Even my father also told me that "your so & so already bought a piece of land for palm oil planting, son.......you should do this as well if you do have extra cash" Now my father know the reason why i ignore to do this when my relative invite me to invest.
Palm oil plantation do not have high barrier of entry.
But you will ask me, why in my watchlist do have IOIcorp? For me palm oil industry have it's cycle same like the property industry. If you can get the right time at the right price, it will bring u a great return.
When many small owner cannot sustain in the market (when the palm oil price per tonne below RM1250), some of them will sell the land to big players, some of them will stop all the activities to reduce the cost. The palm oil price will up again in the long run.
Above is just my opinion, hope it will help some of the investors to get some idea when plan to choose this kind of industry.
Will IOICorp price keep on dropping? My answer is yes. I will grap some when it reach my target price. I will not ignore any undervalued stocks that in my watchlist.
Good Investing!
Dear Jeff
Palm oil probably alrdy start enter into downcycle. I agree with you, when CPO boom, many enter into this field, listed property/industrial stock venture into unrelated core business by acquire land for plant; private company also introduce small palmoil scheme (Gua Musang); listed plantation stock acquire even more land to plant palmoil; Indonesia will produce even more palmoil next year when lot of tree mature..This is viscous cycle!
Next few quarter, when plant stock annonce their result, we will see the vast change in profit. Previuos high premium given by analyst will likely discounted to PE <5-10 as future outlook uncertain. Even IOI have forward selling policy and have lock subtantial CPO at RM 2500-3000, many of the contract believe have defaulted by China/Indian trader.
Dear Jeff
I think is too early to buy plantation stock at the moment. The prefer time would be after plant stock annonce their earning in next few quarter to get clearer picture on the impact of CPO price to their earning, profit margin and whether or not the production cost is lower in tandem with CPO and crude oil price. Another factor is whether the demand for CPO downstream product: oleochemical; speciality and their margin profit affected. This division particlar crucial for ioi as it consist of nearly 35% revenue.
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