FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS'

The Next Great Entry Point!!

2009-07-09T10:54:00.003+08:00

Hi everyone,

Sorry for not responding for the few months, busy for some stuffs.

Have everyone gain on the last few months? If no, nevermind, the next great entry point will be coming soon. Please do not miss this time.

In these few months i have done a lot of research on the potential companies. I do found that there are still a lot of the companies below their real value.

So, ready your bullets.

Good Investing!

祝贺

2009-01-28T14:15:00.002+08:00

祝大家新的一年，万事顺利，心想事成！

愿世界和平，少灾少难！

时机到了吗？

2008-11-23T21:37:00.002+08:00

投资于股海，时机非常重要。古语说：“时势造英雄。”可是，这些都只是对有准备的人所说的。你准备好了吗？

有很多人会问我，"现在可以进场吗?" 你认为呢？

不过的确有些股项已经到了非常吸引的价位，但是也有许多股项还没反映其真正的价值。

本人已和友人集合了一笔庞大资金，准备趁低买入某些低位股项。也有人问，现在是时机吗？答案只在乎你准备好了吗。

没有人懂现在是不是底部，不过只能告诉大家，也距离不远。

对我而言，明年将会有更多的股项显现其原有价值，尤其是华人新年过后，也会是企业最难捱的时刻。这是时机吗？应该问你准备好了吗？

What Do you Seen In The Current Market & What Do You Expected Your Future Is?

2008-10-24T16:18:00.002+08:00

The Current Market Uncertainty Makes The Great Entry Point Closer & Closer!!

2008-09-15T17:22:00.004+08:00

Get ready your bullets, choose the right target, don't feel panic!

Good Investing!

Market is quite but cheap!

2008-08-29T10:51:00.003+08:00

Dear all investors,

Many of the stocks in KLCI are in the very attractive price, do u have any in your mind? Try to share it here, let's disscuss together and generate more input.

Good Investing!

Jeff

To all my dear readers.........

2008-07-07T00:37:00.002+08:00

Dear all readers & investors,

I will be a bit busy these few weeks for my business opening.

If you do have some question need a quick respond can try to contact me by email, i will try to answer as sson as i can. My email address is jeff.chenwai@gmail.com

Sorry for this. Will be back soon & share more of my study with you all.

Thanks for you all supports!

Cheers~~

Ads: Outlet Supervisor Needed! (Urgent)

2008-06-25T13:02:00.003+08:00

Dear all,

My outlet in Sunway Pyramid will be opening soon. Outlet Supervisor needed urgently.

We are in the F&B line which selling variety of traditional pastries. We are now expanding our franchise business in Klang Valley area.Our new outlet in Sunway Pyramid will be opening soon. We would like to search for potential candidates to join our team.

Outlet Supervisor

Responsibilities:
1. Incharge of the day to day operation for the outlet
2. Assist with training and mentoring to ensure that staff staff understand all policies
3. Assist the cash handling, tracking of product usage, wastage & overall inventories.
4. Ensure food & beverage quality, cleanliness of the outlet

Requirements:
1. Certificate of Food & Beverage preparation/ Hospitality Management or equivalent
2. Those who without the required qualification, but have at least 1-2 years experience in the F&B industry are encouraged to apply
3. For those who without experience encourage to apply too
4. Self motivated with strong interpersonal and communication skill
5. Fresh Graduate from Food & Beverage preparation/ Hospitality Management or equivalent are encouraged to apply
6. Applicant must be Malaysian citizen

Company Benefits:
1. Basic Salary (RM1500) + Commission
2. Socso
3. EPF

Starting Date: 9/7/2008

Interested please contact 012-3325233 (Jeff Chong) or send your resume to jeff.chenwai@gmail.com

Pharmaniaga Berhad (7081)

2008-06-24T22:18:00.000+08:00

Pharmaniaga Berhad provides integrated healthcare solutions primarily in Malaysia. The company engages in manufacturing generic pharmaceuticals, and providing logistics and distribution, sales and marketing, medical products and services, hospital equipping and planning, turnkey contract management, and information technology solutions. It also engages in the research and development, and trade of generic pharmaceutical products; warehousing and distribution of pharmaceutical and medical products; and hospital equipment trading, as well as providing clinical laboratory testing and other laboratory related services. In addition, Pharmaniaga engages in the sale and distribution of portable medical devices, and distribution and trading of pharmaceuticals product, food supplements, and diagnostics product. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Shah Alam, Malaysia.

Financial Analysis:

Years EPS
1999 0.306
2000 0.496
2001 0.308
2002 0.373
2003 0.407
2004 0.502
2005 0.260
2006 0.117
2007 0.468

Years Dividend
1999 0.05
2000 -
2001 0.075
2002 0.085
2003 0.12
2004 0.15
2005 0.115
2006 0.15
2007 0.18
Average Dividend Payout on EPS = 37.06%

Years Revenue (000')
1999 356382
2000 427591
2001 543496
2002 585237
2003 632604
2004 799991
2005 936431
2006 1057868
2007 1183983
8 Years Average Revenue Growth Rate = 16.41%
5 Years Average Revenue Growth Rate = 15.3%
1 Year Revenue Growth Rate = 11.92%
Comment: Strong Growth

Years Equity
1999 115478
2000 140176
2001 168480
2002 200821
2003 241683
2004 284844
2005 314557
2006 316240
2007 349671
8 Years Average Equity Growth Rate = 15.07%
5 Years Average Equity Growth Rate = 11.95%
1 Years Equity Growht Rate = 10.57%
Comment: Slowdown, but still above market average

Years ROE(%)
1999 3.85
2000 17.7
2001 18.28
2002 18.59
2003 16.86
2004 17.85
2005 10.23
2006 4.45
2007 14.79
9 Years Average ROE = 13.62%
5 Years Average ROE = 12.84%
1 Years ROE = 14.79%
Comment: Strong compare to other companies in the same industry

Intrinsic Value:
1. Current EPS = 0.468
2. Estimated EPS Growth Rate in the future 10 years = 13.62% (take the 10 years Average ROE growth rate)
3. Estimated PE = 12.45 (8 years average)
4. Minimum acceptance of return = 15% (My minimum acceptance level)

EPS become 1.68 after 10 years

Intrinsic Value : RM1.68 x 12.45 = RM35.09 /4 = RM8.77

Let's take a margin of safety of 50% : RM8.77 /2 = RM4.39 > RM3.48 (24/6/08)

Conclusion: Strongly Undervalue if u looking for a yearly 15% return portfolio.

Let's take another culculation for safety reason.

Net Asset per share = RM2.98 (31/12/2007)

ROA = 0.468/2.98 = 15.7%

15.7% x (100% - 37.06%) = 9.88%

Years NTA expected
2008 2.16
2009 2.34
2010 2.53
2011 2.74
2012 2.97
2013 3.22
2014 3.49
2015 3.78
2016 4.1
2017 4.44

Let say the 10 years ROE in future is 13.62% (less than the average historical data)

Average PE = 12.45

Intrinsic Value = RM4.44 x 0.15 x 15 = RM12.96

Let's take a MOS of 50% = RM12.96 / 2 = RM6.48 > RM3.48 (24/6/08)

Comment: Strongly Undervalued

Why i choose Pharmaniaga rather than other company in the market?

1. A potential industry, market worth 1 billion USD in Malaysia market. The improvement standard of living makes consumers pay greater attention for their help. (Changing of living trend)

2. The company achieve an strong growth away from it's traditional income source, Gvernment Concession

3. Experience management team, impresssive cost & inventory control strategy, help company safe millions of ringgit. (by the implementation of Lean Six Sigma strategy)

4. Highly focus on the manpower trainings & courses, improve the employees productivity & capabality.

5. As a basic nessecity, pharmaceutical industry is recession-proof where by demand will not be significant effected by the economy downturn. (can refer to the historical data)

6. Pay attention on shareholder value & equity.

7. Aggressive business expansion to oversea market, especially the Indonesia which less Healthcare manufacturer & supplier. Pharmaniaga also expanding thier business into Middle East & Vietnam market. With the high GDP of USD7730 per capita, (which is very high compare to other middle east conutries) it will be a great market to enter. For the booming of Vietnam pharmaceutical market, it will be another great expansion for the company.

8. Constantly new product launching to target different market, example Citrex products D-EPA & EPOFemme Improving market share.

9. With a high NTA, RM2.98 (around 85.6% of it's current price, a big discount)

Investment Risk:

1. The changing of politic environment may affect the group earnings. 60% sales from government concession. The current concession of 15 years will expired November 2009. (The comapny havd submitted documents for renewal before expired. Result will be announced November 2008)

2. The expansion risk to a new market including the government policies.

Conclusions:

You know what, when the first time i read all the historical annual reports, i found that this company's annual report is different. (give me a wow!) I found that, they are really put their effort on the annual report, and it is very informative. They show their strategies very clear, the risk management, inventory management strategy, risk management portfolio............................. It have give me a clear mind of what the company's business structure & how the business operate.

For me, pharmaceutical is a reccession proof industry. In the current unstable economy, put your money in a company which can protect our capital is very important.

Good Investing!

All Fundamental Investor, pls in! （全部的基本投资者请进！）

2008-06-24T15:16:00.000+08:00

Dear all fundamental investors & partners,

Would like to do a survey on the fundamental investor's characteristic & year of experince on stock investment on this blog.

Invite all the investors or readers who visited this blog, leave your nick name, invesment experince, your gentle, age （if don't mind)

Thanks!

亲爱的基本投资者及伙伴，

只想做个调查在此部落格游览的基本投资者的特征及投资经验。

请所有游览此部落格的投资者或读者，留下您的名字，经验（年），性别，年龄（如果不介意）。

谢谢！

Remember: BUY WHEN EVERYONE ARE PANIC, SELL WHEN EVERYONE ARE HAPPY!

2008-06-24T14:30:00.002+08:00

Astro (5076) - Coming back from black!

2008-06-21T17:58:00.003+08:00

Try to keep an eye on this company if you interested in the media industry for long term invesment purposes. It is coming back from black!

Astro gradually solving it's problem in Indonesia & improving it's operation in India.

Manulife Insurance Malaysia Berhad (MANULFE 1058)

2008-06-17T23:52:00.007+08:00

Manulife Insurance (Malaysia) Berhad was formerly known as John Hancock Life Insurance (Malaysia) Berhad. Manulife’s presence in Malaysia was a result of a large-scale global merger between Canadian-based Manulife Financial Corporation and U.S.-based John Hancock Financial Services, Inc. completed in April 2004. The merger saw the emergence of Manulife Financial Corporation, which has more than 115 years of experience in the life insurance business, as the major shareholder of the Company. The Company began operating as Manulife Insurance (Malaysia) Berhad in January 2005.

The Company in Malaysia has a colourful and illustrious history. First established in 1963 as British American Insurance Co. Ltd, the Company scored many firsts in the industry. Among them are the first insurance company to offer Home Service insurance, and the first financial institution to introduce the 25-year Mortgage Loan scheme. In August 1984, the Company was listed on the KLSE.

In 1994, the Company was renamed John Hancock Life Insurance (Malaysia) Berhad to reflect our association with then called John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Company in Boston, USA.
Throughout the years, we have positioned ourselves as a leading provider of a wide range of products and services that are designed to meet the financial protection and savings needs of eligible individuals and organisations in Malaysia. We have also gained a reputation as one of the most progressive and financially sound life insurance companies in the country. Currently, we fulfill the needs of more than 270,000 policyholders served by a dedicated agency force of 1,500 and 212 employees. An extensive network of 6 Regional Support Centre and more than 50 agency offices is strategically located throughout Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia.

The wide range of products are available through the Manulife Agency force, as well as selected financial services organizations. The innovative product portfolio covers a broad range of needs, which include:
• Life Protection
• Savings
• Health & Medical
• Retirement
• Long Term Care
• Investment
• University Education Funding

Years EPS
1998 0.188
1999 0.285
2000 0.119
2001 0.147
2002 0.143
2003 0.221
2004 0.201
2005 0.199
2006 0.251
2007 0.420
10 years Average EPS Growth Rate = 16.90%
5 years Average EPS Growth Rate = 27.59%
1 year EPS Growth Rate = 67.33%
Comment: Increasing, Good

Years Dividend
1998 0.06
1999 0.17
2000 0.08
2001 0.08
2002 0.09
2003 0.15
2004 0.14
2005 0.14
2006 0.14
2007 0.15
Average Dividend Payout on EPS = 57.55%
Comment: Consider high compare to other companies in the same industries

Years Revenue (000')
1998 252914
1999 257847
2000 327657
2001 410620
2002 375344
2003 407095
2004 435313
2005 474290
2006 583884
2007 573006
10 Years Average Revenue Growth Rate = 10.15%
5 Years Average Revenue Growth Rate = 9.13%
1 Year Revenue Growth Rate = -1.86%
Comment: Decreasing

Years Equity
1998 179305
1999 200949
2000 213211
2001 241945
2002 264730
2003 298104
2004 316225
2005 338324
2006 369622
2007 432583
10 Years Average Equity Growth Rate = 10.34%
5 Years Average Equity Growth Rate = 10.39%
1 Years Equity Growht Rate = 17.03%
Comment: Increasing, Stable

Years ROE(%)
1998 37.92
1999 45.34
2000 11.25
2001 12.21
2002 10.89
2003 14.93
2004 12.81
2005 11.89
2006 13.73
2007 19.65
10 Years Average ROE = 19.06%
5 Years Average ROE = 14.6%
1 Years ROE = 19.65%
Comment: High & Strong compare to other companies in the same industry

Intrinsic Value:
1. Current EPS = 0.42
2. Estimated EPS Growth Rate in the future 10 years = 15% (less than the average EPS & ROE growth rate)
3. Estimated PE = 15
4. Minimum acceptance of return = 15%

EPS become 1.7 after 10 years

Intrinsic Value : RM1.7 x 15= RM25.5 /4 = RM 6.375

Let's take a margin of safety of 50% : RM6.375/2 = RM3.19 > RM2.87 (17/6/08)

Conclusion: Strongly Undervalue if u looking for a yearly 15% return portfolio.

Let's take another culculation for safety reason.

Net Asset per share = RM2.14 (31/12/2007)

ROA = 0.42/2.14 =19.63%

19.63% x (100% - 57.55%) = 8.33%

Years NTA expected
2008 2.16
2009 2.34
2010 2.53
2011 2.74
2012 2.97
2013 3.22
2014 3.49
2015 3.78
2016 4.1
2017 4.44

Let say the 10 years ROE in future is 15% (less than the average historical data)

Average PE = 15

Intrinsic Value = RM4.44 x 0.15 x 15 = RM9.99

Let's take a MOS of 50% = RM9.99 / 2 = RM4.995 > 2.87 (17/6/08)

Comment: Strongly Undervalued

Why i choose Manulfe rather than other insurance company in the market?

1. It focus on it's specialised sector - life insurance

2. Life insurance premium income will have less effect from the economy downturn compare to general insurance especially the car insurance, fire insurance

3. If you go through the Manulfe investment portfolio, it allocate most of its cash in the goverment bond, keep on increasing. (More safe in the economy downturn)

4. Highly efficient management team, which maintain ROE above 15% (Strong)

5. With a high NTA, RM2.14 (around 75% of it's current price, a big discount)

6. Greater return than the other competitors in the same industry.

7. Low PE around 10

8. High Dividend Payout

Investment Risk:

1. Changing government policy

2. Economy Downturn

Conclusion:
Insurance industry is a great cash cow company especially the life insurance company. This kind of industry have less capital investment & maintenance cost than other industry. In the current unstable economy, put your money in a company which can protect us from high inflation is very important. So, try to think about it.

Cheers~~

The companies that you choosed, in which industries?

2008-06-17T21:31:00.007+08:00

Do you think that, choosing a right industry is important in order to protect our capital?

Sometimes, we will forget the rules of investment. We will attracted by the low price of a stock, low PE ratio of a stock, but we have ignore the industry that this stock is in.

Try to check from your stock investment portfolio, are there any industries that will face stiff competition in future? Are the companies that you choosed, need to pump in huge capital every year to maintain the profit margin? Are the companies that you choosed, can maintain its growth or earnings in the economy downturn? Can the companies protect your capital from the high inflation?

Let's do a comparison between two industries, the insurance industry compare to airline industry.

Capital Investment:
Insurance industry is a high network business, once the business networking stable, the capital investment pump in will reduce to generate earnings growth. But for airline industry is different, it need to pump in huge capital to buy extra planes for expansion purposes. The expansion risk of the airline industry will be higher than insurance industry.

Maintanence Cost:
If that industry that you choose need high maintanence cost, it will reduce our profit in long term. For airline industry, maintenance cost is extremely high. But insurance industry's maintanence cost is low compare to airline industry. Risk reduce.

Raw Material Cost:
As we know that, more than 40% of airline industry cost come from crude oil. The fluctuation of the raw material cost will reduce the earnings margin of airline company. But for Insurance industry, the effect is less.

Economy Downturn:
As we know, in the economy recession every industries will face the earnings pressure. But which industry will face a deep earnings pressure, which industry face less earnings pressure? Let's imagine, in the economy downturn, people will reduce their expenses or traveling, it will directly affect the airline industry. With a high maintainence cost for airline industry, it will make airline industry face a great pressure. But, in a economy downturn, will u ignore to protect yourself from accident?

So......let's choose a company that is in a potential industry, in order for us to sleep nicely everyday!

Pelikan International Corporation Berhad (PELIKAN)

2008-05-23T12:59:00.004+08:00

The first time i heard this name Pelikan, i thought it is a local or Malaysia brand (same like when i heard "Bata"). After some study, i found that it is originally from German, and also an international brand which have market thier product in more than 50 countries. In Malaysia, Pelikan can be say as a baby brand. Pelikan is in the consumer industry which engages in the manufacture and distribution of writing instruments; art, painting, and hobby products; school and office stationery; and printer consumables. The company distributes its products through wholesalers, dealers, retailers, hypermarkets, schools, and specialized stores primarily in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, rest of Europe, and Latin America. Pelikan International is headquartered in Puchong, Malaysia.

Not so many people known about this brand, same like me in the past. Most of us only heard about buncho's, Faber Caster, Pilot, Parker, Stabilo & etc........

It is a strong company that have efficient management team. Pelikan is aggrassively enter the Asia market. The are on the road to take over more Asia manufacturer & distribution network.

1)The EPS as below
2005 RM0.215
2006 RM0.241
2007 RM0.289

Average EPS Growth Rate = 19%

2)The Dividend per share as below
2005 RM0.18
2006 RM0.15
2007 RM0.11

The % of Dividend payout rate (2/1)
2005 83.72%
2006 62.24%
2007 38.06%

Average ROE = 17%

Average PE (10years) = 8.44

From the above, we can know that the management started to reduce the dividend payout although the EPS is increasing. For me it is a good strategy to increase my investment return if the management can reserve the cash for better investment and generate more ruturn, rather than just pay us the dividend which have to deduct from the government tax.

If let's say the next 5 years, the comapny remain the same dividend payout rate as 2007 with average ROE of 17%, our expectation can be like below:

17% x 61.94% (100% - 38.06%) = 10.53%

It mean the reserve portion of cash after the deduction from dividend payout, can generate of 10.53% growth for Asset.

Let's culculate the future growth of the Net asset per share with the 10.53% growth rate

2007 1.7
2008 1.879
2009 2.077
2010 2.296
2011 2.54
2012 2.80
2013 3.09
2014 3.42
2015 3.78
2016 4.18
2017 4.62

The Intrinsic value = 4.62 x 0.17 x 8.44
= 6.63

with the current price of RM2.95, we are at more than 200% of margin of safety.

Extra Information:

If you check the shareholding changes, you would found that Pelikan has just get a new giant investor (Hayman Capital Master Fund LP-the most successful fund in last year which gain a lot of money in the US Crisis). Other than that, the other shareholders & diretor of the company like the Goldman Sachs, Mr Loo are increasing thier shares in Pelikan. Do we can expect the future of Pelikan from here? Please think about it.

My Recent Study - Pelikan, Picorp, Kasset & Vads

2008-05-05T14:01:00.002+08:00

Try to look into these stocks. There have the potential to growth further. I will post my analysis after my study. you can post yours' as well if you guys have done.

Thanks!

Good Investing!

NESTLE (M) BHD (4707) NESTLE

2008-01-10T11:39:00.000+08:00

Business Summary:

Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of food products in Malaysia. The company's products include ice-creams, drinks, liquid milk and juices, instant coffee and chocolate confectionery products, instant noodles, culinary products, cereals, yogurt and related products. It also offers sweetened condensed milk, and powdered milk and drinks. The company's brand names include MILO, NESCAFE, MAGGI, NESPRAY, and KIT KAT. Nestle (Malaysia) also exports its products primarily to South East Asian and Middle East countries. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad is a subsidiary of Nestle S.A.

Beverages

MILO - relaunched of PROTOMALT to enhance the beverage’s nutritional profile, the launched of 3in1 Mocha and 3in1 Light. MILO launched a new public service campaign, the “Grow with Sports”. The year saw MILO recording an all time high in terms of market share, which reflects the continued confidence and support for the brand that is a household name.

Nescafe - the brand introduced new variants of the easy-mix instant coffee - NESCAFÉ 2in1 for consumers who prefer coffee without sugar and Nescafé Light Roast for those seeking a milder, smoother cup of coffee. The premium NESCAFÉ GOLD brand re-launch of the improved NESCAFÉ 3in1, added to the brand’s aroma of success.

Food

MAGGI continued to grow from strength to strength and remains a market leader in the noodles, tomato ketchup, chilli sauce and stocks categories, and has managed to withstand strong competition in the form of imports from other ASEAN countries.

Milks

In line with the focus on Nutrition, Health and Wellness, innovation and renovation activities were carried out, which resulted in the launch of products with added benefits such as NESTLÉ
OMEGA PLUS with ACTICOL (helps reduce cholesterol), NESVITA Cereal with reduced sugar, NESVITA 3in1 and NESTUM Oats.

Chilled Dairy

The Chilled Dairy Business Unit achieved strong growth in both the Yogurt and Yogurt Drink categories, aided by new product launches. The marketing campaign for Bliss Low Fat Yogurt Drink helped to nurture stronger consumer awareness and pushed the category to achieve strong double digit growth. The launch of the Bliss Light Yogurt Drink, along with the introduction of new variants such as the Yogurt Drink with 0% fat & 0% cholesterol, further amplified the category’s market share.

Ice Cream

NESTLÉ Ice Cream had another good year during the period under review, maintaining its market leadership. As a result of product innovation in the cone range, DRUMSTICK INFERNO and DRUMSTICK KIT KAT were launched, achieving double digit growth and establishing DRUMSTICK as the fastest growing brand in the ice cream portfolio. Similar strides were made in the Take Home range with the launch of LA CREMERIA 800ml which offers consumers a view of the appetising rosettes and generous sauce through its transparent lid.

Chocolate & Confectionery

Strong volume growth was recorded for both the major brands - KIT KAT and SMARTIES - in the domestic market as well as in the export markets. In the case of KIT KAT, this was achieved via core equity building communications as well as packaging renovation. In addition to this, the introduction of the KIT KAT BITES format in Thailand also proved to be very successful, adding to the growth volume for the category. SMARTIES, meanwhile, generated strong sales during the year, boosted by innovative ideas including an on pack character programme, which was
supported by a 360 degree award-winning campaign.

Nutrition

Infant Nutrition launched NESTLÉ Rice Porridge in mid 2006, the first dry savoury food for babies in Malaysia. The quick and easy to prepare meal - which is rich in texture and fortified with 15 vitamins and minerals essential for growth and development - was well received by mothers. NESLAC 1+ and 3+ Growing Up Milk was re-launched during the period under review, boasting a brand new look aimed at further strengthening the brand’s presence in the premium segment.

The launch of NUTREN UNTUK DIABETIK 900g and NUTREN BALANCE Cereal Bar provided a healthy and tasty nutritional option for consumers seeking to manage their blood sugar levels. In the Performance Nutrition segment meanwhile, ongoing renovation to deliver products that meet the needs of individuals with active lifestyles, resulted in the introduction of POWERBAR TRIPLE THREAT bar – boasting the same performance as the POWERBAR but tasting like a cereal bar. The brand continued to support major sporting events in Malaysia, and provided a much needed energy boost to national athletes under the Malaysian Sports Council programme.

Food Services

To expand the out-of-home channel further, new emphasis was placed on the new product offerings and an increased presence for beverages with machine placements in the Office Coffee Service (OCS) channel.

Among the new entrants for the year were mixes and sauces such as MAGGI Nasi Goreng Cina, Nasi Goreng Kampung, Seafood Imperial Sauce, Curry Chicken Paste, Sambal Tumis Paste, Perencah Ayam Goreng, and customised salsa sauce for McDonald’s. New beverages introduced include Kiwi Fruit, Mixed Fruit and NESCAFÉ Latte. In line with the Group’s move towards Nutrition, Health and Wellness, the sugar content in most of the beverages has been reduced, while maintaining their taste and quality.

Financial Performance:

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average

ROE 43.15 40.43 48.81 49.74 47.26 45.88 > 10 (strong)

ROA 13.05 11.95 17.33 19.68 18.11 16.02 > 10

Total Liabilities : Equity = 55.44 : 44.56

D/E Ratio = 0.2

P/E Ratio = 22

DY = 3.9%

Average Revenue Growth Rate = 7.2%

Average Earnings Growth Rate = 8.5%

Supporting Value:

1. NTA per share (as at 30/9/07) = RM2.50

2. The EPF department increase the share holding.

3. Strong efficiency of the management level. (can also refer to the increasing ROE)

4. Strong cash flow with RM46million on hand.

Investment Risk:

1. The increasing cost of raw material.

2. The rising competition of local players like Power Root, Mamee, Super........

Conclusion:

Nestle is a company that have a strong market penetration in Malaysia market. It achieved a great ROE for the past 10 year with an average of 40%. It shows a efficient management team. These is a challeging year for Nestle with the high inflation and cost of raw material. For the recent price, it is overvalued. I recommend to put it into watchlist. (Try to check-out the rising competitor - Natbio, which is the owner of power root. It achieve a strong growth, especially the Alicafe, Pearl, and the new oligo coco)

PARAMOUNT CORPORATION BHD (1724) PARAMON

2008-01-08T21:02:00.000+08:00

Business Summary:

Paramount Corporation Berhad, through its subsidiaries, engages in the property investment business primarily in Malaysia. It operates through four segments: Property investment, Property development, Construction, and Education. Property investment segment engages in the rental of residential and commercial properties. Property development segment develops residential and commercial properties. Construction segment engages in the construction of buildings. This segment also provides engineering services. Education segment operates private educational institutions. Paramount Corporation was incorporated as Malaysia Rice Industries Berhad in 1969 and changed its name to Paramount Corporation Berhad. The company is based in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia.

Property Division

Paramount has earned an excellent reputation as a reliable and quality focused property developer, which attribute has been re-affirmed through Paramount Property (Utara) Sdn Bhd wining the prestigious 12th FIABCI Property Award of Distinction 2004, Residential Development Category for its development, Bandar Laguna Merbok, an upmarket resort style township.

Over the last few years, Paramount has successfully developed the mixed-development townships of Taman Patani Jaya, Taman Sutera and Bandar Laguna Merbok in Sungai Petani by delivering over 1,800 units of properties. All these townships bear testimony to the company progressive approach to property development. Following these successes, the company decided to establish the first property project in Klang Valley under Paramount Property Development Sdn Bhd. Kemuning Utama enjoyed overwhelming success since the project took off. Its innovative and quality products, geared to match purchasers’ requirements saw a take up rate of 99% of its early launches.

As a core business activity, property development will continue to contribute significantly to Paramount’s earnings leveraging on its proven records.

Construction Division:

Paramount Engineering & Construction Sdn Bhd (PECSB) is a construction-based company with activities in civil engineering and building works, and is wholly owned by Paramount Corporation Berhad.

PECSB’s established track record is proof of its commitment to be a long-term player in the construction industry with activities in civil engineering and building works. Over these 16 years, PECSB has been awarded projects amounting to more than RM1.0 billion, and PECSB has achieved remarkable growth in terms of profitability.

PECSB initially concentrated on residential projects in the Northern Region of Malaysia, but has since diversified and expanded its business operations into other areas such as infrastructure, high-rises, schools and other public works in the Klang Valley, Pahang and Melaka.

The Company embraces Quality Management Systems as an integrated and inherent part of its corporate culture to ensure that exacting standards are conscientiously practised. The company attained the MS ISO 9001:2000 certification and this has further enhanced the Company's efficiency and competitiveness.PECSB holds a Grade G7 licence approved by the Construction Industry Development Board Malaysia (CIDB), which permits the Company to undertake an unlimited amount of building works and specialised Civil Engineering projects. Grade G7 is the highest grade of licence issued by the Board.

PECSB also holds a PKK Class A licence, which permits the Company to tender for construction projects awarded by the government for unlimited contract amounts. PECSB has established a solid and close relationship with its suppliers over the years through goodwill and its reputation in the construction industry. This ensures fast and consistent supply of building materials and cement for all its construction projects.

Tertiary Education

Established in 1983, and a pioneer in Malaysian private education, KDU College has continued to be an innovative leader in being the first SMART college in Malaysia. Through its SMART initiatives, KDU aims to provide a superior learning experience to nurture students to become independent and life-long learners. KDU College Sdn Bhd Bhd has 2 campuses. The two are strategically situated in Petaling Jaya and Penang.

KDU offers a wide range of programmes at Certificate, Diploma, Degree and Masters levels. The Certificate and Diploma courses are internally developed while the Degree and Masters programmes are conducted in association with prestigious universities in Australia and the UK.

Primary and Secondary Education

The first purpose-built private smart school in Malaysia. Sekolah Sri KDU® was set up by Paramount Corporation Berhad who has a 20 year track record in education with its network of KDU Colleges. Sekolah Sri KDU® is based on the Malaysian Government Blue-Print on Smart Schools and has adopted some of the world's best practices. This provision of high quality primary and secondary education represents our initiative for downstream expansion in the educational sector.

Executive Learning

The Executive Learning Network defines the unique learning experience at KMDC. Modeled after the best business and executive learning centres in the world, the people at KMDC realize the limitations of the traditional lecture-based learning process. To ensure that learning members are exposed to the absolute learning experience and executive education that goes beyond the framework of theories – and to enable professionals to immediately utilize their enhanced management and leadership capabilities – KMDC provides the most effective learning and professional development solutions.

Language School

KDU International Language Training School (KILTS) is strategically located at the famous "Three Gorges Square", Shapingba, commonly known as the educational hub of Chongqing and home to about 25 universities. The centre is easily accessible via public transport.

KILTS commenced operations in the fourth quarter of 2004 and achieved an enrollment of 647 students in 2005.

KILTS's emphasis is on quality teaching methodology and materials which are mainly devloped in-house by its academic team comprising experienced English native speakers from New Zealand, United States and United Kingdom. KILTS offers a wide range of programmes, from pre-school to working professional level as well as customised courses for corporations and training on a one-to-one basis. KILTS also offer online programmes in collaboration with ACL English Solutions, an Australian company.

Other Division

Paramount Corporation Berhad (Paramount) is also involved in investment and plantation. Paramount Global Assets Sdn Bhd, Paramount’s investment arm, holds a 20% share in Jerneh Insurance Bhd.

Financial Performance:

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average

ROE 5.72 7.47 7.50 15.54 15.06 10.26 > 10

ROA 4.28 3.86 3.69 8.02 9.35 5.84 <>

Total Liabilities : Equity = 32.30 : 67.70

D/E Ratio = 0.09

P/E ratio = 5.1

DY = 5.56%

Average Revenue Growth Rate = 26.74% (5 years)

Average Earnings Growth Rate = 48.06% (5 years)

Supporting Value:

1. NTA per share (as at 30/9/07) = RM4.08 > RM2.43 (as at 8/1/08)

2. The management level staff especially the director level starting to purchase company share.

3. The increase of the efficiency of the management level. (can also refer to the increasing ROE).

4. Low D/E ratio.

5. Strong cash flow with RM134millions in hand.

6. The group is currently trading at 55% discount to its NTA/share of RM4.08.

7. The group constantly come out with Employee Share Option Scheme in year 2007.

8. Aquisition of more landbank in Klang Valley area.

9. The launch of the new phases (Phase 6 & 8) at Bandar Laguna Merbok, Sungai Petani.

10. The stable growth of 6%-7% of the Education Division, especially the expansion in China market.

Upcoming Projects:

1. The new phase of Bandar Laguna Merbok (Phase 6, Malay Lots).

2. The lauch of the new programes from Education Division.

Conclusion:

Paramount Corporation Berhad is a company with strong cash flow with very low debt ratio. The company currently trading at more than 50% discount to its NTA/share. It also showed an improvement effeciecy of the management team. With the new government policy and project is also a great affect on the property industry in the future. (It can showed from the great respond from the launch of the EPF 2nd account loan payment scheme) As a conclusion, Paramount Corporation Berhad is an undervalue stock in the current market.

谢谢支持！

2008-01-08T14:03:00.000+08:00

此部落格开始至今，我收到许多邮件。谢谢大家的支持与鼓励。

大家能在此提出大家认为是被市场忽略或低估的股项，大家一起讨论与分享，以及收集资料。这样能确保我们在更深入了解某公司的情况下购入股票，降低风险。

希望大家能继续支持，给于意见，一起学习！

谢！

请问您是因为什么原因将您手上的股票卖出的呢？

2008-01-04T10:35:00.000+08:00

请问你有没有试过这样的经验，心痛太早把股票卖了？买了后它不断创新高？

记得在2004年初，我开始研究Dialog这只股票。在当时有许多分析家都纷纷讨论原油在未来的趋势。在各大报章上都开始出现类似新闻。我也纷纷加入研究希望能捞回一笔。

由于当时的我是刚开始学习基本投资，能收集资料的来源不多。可是我对Dialog这只股却情有独钟。我发现Dialog手上的现金时超强，甚至借钱给需要现金的金融机构收取利息。当时的我还很单纯，不懂得如果一家公司拥有太多的现金而美好好利用来发展业务不是一件好事。于是我就在13-5-2004以每股RM0.475的价钱买入3000股。

其实当时Dialog的情况更现在的Keladi蛮相识，也就是刚刚1 split to 10. 一分了过后，成交量不断增加，然后就静了下来。就算是原油相关股项都备受关注，蠢蠢欲动，也没人问津。当时的报章都把原油的去向成为重点新闻，推荐原油相关公司如：SCOMI，Petronas，SAPURACREST，SHELL等公司，就是没有Dialog的份。很多分析家也推荐原油相关公司，也没有把它纳入投资组合。

还记得当时在我买入Dialog过后两三个月，它开始下跌，跌到大约RM0.395。我就问了我投资股票多年的亲戚，Dialog能买吗？他们都笑着说，这样便宜的股票能买吗！不会起的啦！要买都买Scomi或其他的啦！我听了后顿时心都碎了。我想我不是那么没眼光吧，我看了那么多投资的书难道是白费的吗？他们随便买都好过我吗？那么我研究这么多干什么？同时我也在某个forum里推荐此股票，可是大家给我的恢复都是负面的。

可是我不甘心，我继续收集资料，阅读更多书籍学习，最终我还是认为Dialog是间超低估的公司。以它平均每年超过10%的ROE，难道不比其他原油相关公司强吗？在加上公司拥有超强的现金流，没有负债，就算经济风暴突然降临，也不需害怕。（因为通常经济风暴来临，第一位最担心和忙碌一定是银行）。可是在过不久后，Dialog跌到了每股RM0.33，然后在那儿徘徊了一段时间，我于是再买进10，000股。现在平均成本大约每股RM0.36。同时，我也说服我爸和弟弟买入，他们也买了一些。

当时我对Dialog所得的分析如下：

9年平均ROE = 15.03% 〉15%
9年平均EPS Growth Rate = 17.84% 〉15%
D/E ratio = 0.013 <>Net Profit Margin = 20.26%

P/E = 14.26 <>Intrinsic Value = RM 1.55

Fair Value = RM0.45

我在想，以原油的需求日益增加，Dialog作为相关公司，又在对原油上游工业拥有多年丰富的经验。在加上，我发现管理层尤其是董事们都不断吸纳公司的股票。试问我有什么理由不买呢？

大约到了2006年尾，Dialog由于宣布在之前所竞标的几项计划落实，将为公司未来几年带来丰厚的盈利。在加上原油价格不断攀升，其他的原油相关公司都已经大大被超估。于是很多投资者开始买入Dialog。报章也开始把Dialog纳入报章里推荐。分析家也开始推荐Dialog。（我心想，会不会有点儿马后炮的感觉）。Dialog也因此没有回到过我买入的价钱，直到最高RM2.20左右，再回到现在的RM1.80，都还有分析家建议买入。（是谁告诉我，这样便宜的股市不会起的？）以RM1.80计算，回筹率大约是4倍左右。有此可见，被低估的股项最终还是会反映出它的价值。

可是重点来了，由于当时的我还不算得上熟练。我爸是一位非常虔诚的道教徒，我爸也时常到庙堂去帮忙。我爸在某“童身”的劝告下，说经济风暴将降临。我爸回到家后马上告诉我和弟弟此事，要我把手上的股票卖掉。我不愿意，因为我认为Dialog的价值到了RM1.55以后才算不合理，可是当时它只有RM0.68左右。由于弟弟也在最后被爸爸说服了，两人一起劝我把我的和他们的Dialog股票卖了（因为当时我爸和弟弟只拥有Dialog股票，而且存放在我的户口里）。大约两星期后，我最终被说服了，我在RM0.78放弃了Dialog。过没多久，Dialog就一‘起’不回头。

请问如果换个角色，当时的那人是你，你会有什么感受？现在想起都觉得有点傻。我卖掉Dialog的原因竟然是因为我爸从某“童身”那儿听到他预测经济风暴将降临.............，所以我放弃了Dialog。而且当时都还没达到它的应有价值(RM1.55). 这是什么来的？？现在想起还真荒谬。后悔！

可是Dialog这一战给了我一个很好的学习与经验。我学到了，投资者应该具备的其中几个条件如下：

1）千万不要轻信别人的猜测和意见。身为一位投资者应该将消息资料严格分辨后，才吸纳或接受。

2）寻找被低或被市场忽略的公司，最终还是会反映它的价值，往往回酬会更高。

3）请相信自己，不断学习，不断从错误中站起来。不要轻易放弃，除非有更好的理由。

4）不要太过相信报章的消息，很多都是发生了才推荐给大众。若相信买入的话，很可能股价已去到最高点，随时往下掉。（因为多数基金经理发放出好消息时，也是他们正要准备找替死鬼的时候了）

5）若公司的职员尤其是管理层或董事们吸纳公司的股票，反映了他们对公司的信心，或有可能公司将会不久将来公布某些计划，激励股价。（因为他们也是人，也想分一杯羹嘛）

希望我的小小分享对大家以后会有帮助！希望大家继续努力，多多指教！

谢！

我的投资历程

2008-01-03T19:50:00.000+08:00

相信每一位投资者都有自己的投资及学习历程。有喜有忧，我也不例外。以下是我的投资历程分享,以让更多读者了解我的一些投资背景：

还记得在我刚满18岁时，爸爸就叫我到芙蓉的某间股票行去开了个CDS户口。我爸给了我十千块作为本钱，我爸并没有教导我该怎么开始。（原因是我爸不怎么懂股票，他曾经在96年牛市里，赚了不少的快钱，但在97年股灾后赔完之前所赚的钱。我爸是消息投资者，并不对任何股票进行研究。只要听到股票经纪人哪儿有什么内幕消息，就跟随买入与卖出）。

从那时起，我就开始了股票投资。刚开始我只是想申请IPO的股票。可惜的是，半年过去了却没被抽中过，所以我放弃了，开始买入股票投资。投资？我认为当时的我也分不清楚什么是投资，什么是投机。由于我手上有十千资本，也不怎么懂股票，就翻开报章然后从20只当天最热门的股票中随便选了一只股票，买了3000 lots，总值RM4650或每股RM1550. 刚踏入股市的我比较单纯，只要尽早投资就会赚到钱。怎知过了大约7天交易日后，股价大跌，价值跌剩下RM2100，跌超过了一半。我顿时傻眼了。我最终在RM1890或每股630卖了。这时我才发现，原来我是在最高点买进了。

才十多天的交易日，我就亏了RM2760。对一位像我那样的初学者来说，我真的被股票吓坏了，开始反感。可是我更我自己说无论如何，我也要找出原因，我很不甘心，为什么别人能在股市里赚钱，但我却一进场就损手烂脚。不甘心！从那时起，我就开始收集资料，阅读投资书籍。我也曾经上过不少的股票技术分析课程，也付了不少的学费。经过大约两年的时间，不断研究学习，尝试过失败，也尝试过赚快钱的喜悦，更乘搭过山车没两样，每天情绪起伏很大，必须追踪股市的动向。可是到最后发现所赚到的钱比我做基本投资的某些股票回酬还要少，还要必须提心吊胆，因为投机更投资不一样。投机不认股，像古人说的那样“不理白马或黑马，会跑的就是好马”，可是很多马没跑到终点，甚至有些还没跑到一半就跌到了。所以最终我选择了成为基本投资者。我也并不排除技术分析，可作为参考。

我的基本投资概念源自于巴菲特先生的投资理念，但有些方面更巴菲特先生不同的是，我并不会排除高成长的生物科技，及其他科技股。但投资理念及选股方式相识。我喜欢找出被市场忽略了的股项进行研究，因为被低估的股项才会为我的投资组合达到更高的增值。我会对某些公司做深入研究，包括它的行业前景，攻势背景，与同行的竞争能力，公司内部架构，管理层效率，回酬率及业务增长等。当有机会，我也会到实地考察某些公司的业务地点，更管理人员交谈。这样可以让我更了解公司的实质运作。由于本人是从行销系毕业，所以我对市场品牌，非常注重。我认为有好口碑的公司无论从事的是什么行业，都会有很大的帮助，大家会对他更有信心。

在未来我将会在我的部落格分享更多的投资理念，及更多的股项分析。希望我们能一起分享及研究，以丰富及保障我们的投资组合。

大家能在本部落格分享你们的看法以及股票分析，我也很愿意接受意见。

谢！

DXN HOLDINGS BHD （5074）DXN

2008-01-02T10:29:00.000+08:00

Business Summary：

DXN Holdings Bhd, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of health supplements and other products; and biodiesel and other incidental products. It also involves in the cultivation of ganoderma and mycelium; manufacture and trading of health food, traditional medicine, various confectioneries, and other food products; wholesale and retail of stationeries, household items, hardware toiletries, gifts, and accessories; and sale, purchase, import, export, and distribution of natural food and vitamin supplements. In addition, the company operates as a travel agent and tour operator; housing developer and contractor; and information technology adviser and consultant. Further, it engages in the research and development of biotechnology, biochemical, agricultural products, and health food supplements; manufacture of monascus, vinegar, and mycelium; cleansing material industries; the formulation of traditional medicines; and cosmetics and beverages businesses. The company primarily operates in Malaysia, India, Philippines, the United States, Australia, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Thailand. DXN Holdings is based in Penang, Malaysia.

MLM & Health Food Supplements Division

The core business for DXN holdings, activities that include cultivation, manufacturing
and marketing of the health food supplements. The company implement direct selling or MLM strategy to market their health food supplements. Other than that, the company also wholesale and retail of stationeries, household items, hardware toiletries, gifts, accessories and skin & personal care products.

Property Division

DXN has launched two major projects during the 2007 financial year, namely “Richmont Residence” located in Jelutong, Penang and a township development project called “STARGATE” in Alor Setar, Kedah. The Penang project has contributed RM10.46 million to the
Group’s earnings during the financial year.

Renewable Energy Division

DXN has successfully completed the demonstration plant and has embarked on its own cultivation activities to grow Jatropha and Castor as the alternative feedstock to palm oil for manufacturing biodiesel.

Financial Performance:

Years 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average

ROE 20.19 21.87 18.33 17.21 19.4 > 10

ROA 15.52 15.56 9.71 8.44 12.31 > 10

Total Liabilities : Equity = 49.4 : 50.6

D/E Ratio = 0.64

P/E Ratio = 5.28

DY = 5.8

Average Revenue growth rate = 14.01% (5 years)

Average Earnings growth rate = 12.83% (5 years)

Supporting Value:

1. NTA (as at 31/8/2007)= RM0.655 > RM0.52 (as at 2/1/2008)

2. The management level staff especially the director level starting to increase company share.

3. DXN have an efficient management team (can also refer to the strong ROE).

4. The pick-up of oversea MLM Business:

DXN's MLM business has penetrated into more than 30 countries, including China, India, USA, Middle East & etc. DXN has added a lot of new branches in It is an international MLM company. The MLM business achieve a strong growth in oversea (80% of MLM sales). In Malaysia, compare to other MLM companies, DXN had sucessfully penetrated into Malay market, and achieved a great market share. DXN has introduced 8 new organic products ranging from beverages to health supplements recently.

In addition, the company has raised its MLM product prices sold overseas by 10-30% in 1QFY02/08. The full impact of this price rise will be felt from 2QFY02/08 onward.

5. The pick-up of Property Division:

The phase 1 of STARGATE project in Alor Star as all the 222 units of shops-office buildings have been fully booked (not yet take into account for 2007 financial year), the property segment is anticipated to contribute more significantly to the Group’s earnings in the next financial year. (If you have been visited Alor Star recently, you will feel the a big different between STARGATE projects with the existing properties in Alor Star. It will be symbolize a big changes for Alor Star city from an "traditional town image" to a new township. The first phase project include a hypermarket, 88 units 3-storey shopoffices,..............More details can refer the link below:

www.wtwy.com/report/wtwReport/PropertyMarket2007.pdf

DXN Holdings Bhd and Taglink Capital Sdn Bhd have proposed jointly develop a mixed development project called “Stargate Autocity” in Kedah via a special purpose vehicle (SPV).

6. The pick-up of Renewable Energy Division:

DXN has proven that it has its own internal strength and expertise in the biotech field to explore into biodiesel or other renewable energy. Considering the volatility of the trend of CPO (crude palm oil) price movement, most analysts believe that the price will still move upward in the near future thus, making the return of biodiesel processing from CPO to be uncertain. So, by using alternative such as jatropha to produce biodiesel will be more competitive. (From my studies, Jatropha will replace palm oil as the raw material to produce biodiesel in the near future. It is more easy and lower cost to plant compare to oil palm. It also takes shorter time to growth, and it's fruit can abstract higher percentage of oil than oil palm, the steps & process to produce biodiesel also more simple than oil palm).

Further Jatropha information please refer the links below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jatropha
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2007/5/18/nation/17762012&sec=nation

7. DXN is included in the same page of the beneficiaries of the Northern Corridor Project (NCER) , because they are based in Kedah and are classified as agricultural products.

8. Thanks to the government new policy, EPF holders can withdraw their savings from their account 2 to part finance their first or second house. It will increase the demand of the property investment industry.

Investment Risks:

1. More exciting MLM players in the markets that DXN operates in, which may offer better compensation schemes and cheaper products. The uncertainty currencies exchange between RM with USD will affect the company earnings as well.

2. The increasing construction material cost around the world will affect the profit margin of the property division.

3. Execution risk for its biodiesel ventures.

Conclusion:

I recommend DXN because it is one of the undervalue stock in the current market with stable REO. It's current value (RM0.52) is lower than it's NTA per share (RM0.655). Its core business of the manufacture and sale of health supplements via direct selling into overseas markets (80% of MLM sales) that has an edge over its competitors. This is achievable via its strong foothold in the regional market, in particular, the Philippines and India. DXN has an ability to control the supply chain in both upstream and downstream operations. With the strong networking connection in Kedah, DXN has diversification into the property sector with two fairly successful projects in Penang and Kedah. It will be a bright future for DXN in next financial year.

RM1,000,000是梦吗？RM1,000,000 is a dream?

2008-01-01T15:12:00.000+08:00

从RM10，000到RM1，000，000是梦吗？可能吗？
答案：绝对不是，绝对可能。

从以上图表，能让我们明确的知道，只要我们能够让RM10，000的投资组合以每年10%的增长率不断倍增，50年以后我们将达到RM1，000，000的目标。若我们更有投资经验，能够让RM10，000的投资组合以每年15%的增长率倍增，大约34年后我们将达到RM1，000，000的目标。若我们能找到拥有优良业绩及稳定增长的股项组合，能为我们带来平均每年20%的增长，大约26年后，我们将达到RM1，000，000的目标。那当然如果我们能向巴菲特先生那样，能达到25%以上的增长话，我们将在少过22年达到RM1，000，000的目标。

那如果选择把钱放入定期存款，以每年4%的增长，我想应该到了80岁也未必达到RM1，000，00的目标。因为我们还必须除去通膨的侵蚀。这也是为什么我以10%的计算作为底线。那当然，如果我们能投入比RM10，000更多的本金进行有效投资的话，我们将更早达到RM1，000，000的目标。

所以选择能优质公司，进行投资是非常重要。它必须能在经济风暴时保障我们的本金，而且必须确保我们的投资能增长，以对抗通膨的侵蚀。股票投资有一定的风险，我们也很难预测经济风暴几时降临，所以只有选择优质股才能保障我们的本金。

那有人会问，真的那么容易吗？我曾经研究过，30年将RM10，000投入Maybank的股票，30年后经过4个严重的经济风暴的今天，他的价值是超过RM1，000，000。由此可见，说容易，的确称得上容易，但对某些人来说也不简单，因为要在30年内，遇到多个经济风暴都能忍耐，不将它卖掉。这也是成为基本投资者的挑战。

终结：总的来说在投资学里，时间就是金钱，让我们现在就开始吧！

English Version:

From RM10,000 to RM1,000,000 is a dream? Is it possible?
The answer: Absolutely not a dream. Absolutely possible.

From the table above, we realize that as long as we can achieve a 10% return per year from our RM10,000 investment combination, after 50 years, we can get RM1,000,000 returns. If we are experience investors, we can make sure our RM10,000 investment combination in average generate 15% of return every year, around 34 years, we can achieve our RM1,000,000 target. If we can find some potential and stable growing companies as our investment combination, which can bring in average 20% growth per year, around 26 years, we can achieve our RM1,000,000 target. Of course if we can achieve 25% or above growth for our RM10,000 investment combination like what Mr.Warrent Buffet achieved, we can get RM1,000,000 less than 22 years.

But if we choose to put our RM10,000 into bank as an fixed deposit, with 4% interest of increment per year, I think we cannot get RM1,000,000 even though we are already 80 years old. It is because we have to calculate in the inflation rate that will affect our return as well. That is also the reason why I choose 10% as a basic of calculation. But of course, if we can increase our capital for investment let says RM20,000 or RM50,000, we can get our target of RM1,000,000 early.

As a result, choose a great and stable company as our investment is a must. It have to make our capital is save during economy recession, and have to make sure our investment will growth, in order to against inflation rate. Stock investment have certain risk, it is hard for us to predict when the economy recession will arrive, so only choose great companies as an investment can safeguard our capital.

Someone will be asking, is it too easy? I have done a study, if 30 years ago, someone invested RM10,000 into a stock called Maybank, after 30 years, passed through 4 serious economy recessions, his earnings exceeded RM1,000,000. So, is it easy? Can say so, but for someone else is not as easy. This is because, in the 30 years, we have to be patience and did not sold the stock even faced 4 serious recessions. This is also a main challenge to become a fundamental investor.

As conclusion: In the investment world, time is money, let us start now, achieve our financial freedom early!

Keladi Maju Berhad (6769) Keladi

2007-12-31T09:41:00.000+08:00

Business Summary:

Keladi Maju Berhad engages in the property development and investment holding businesses in Malaysia. The company develops residential and commercial properties. It also engages in the cultivation and sale of oil palm fruits. The company is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Property Division

The property division focus on the north region of Malaysia. Company currently active in the Kedah property development. The projects included as following:

Taman Mahsuri, comprising mixed residential and commercial properties (85% Ocupational Certificate completed, also the main income source for the 2007 financial year with around RM40 million), remaining 524 units of mixed residential and commercial properties laucnhed in the same financial year, will be completed by next financial year.

Taman Mutiara, 72 units shop houses launch in the 2007 financial year.

Taman Cili, 48 units terrace houses & 18 units of semi-D houses launch in the 2006 financial year.

Taman Lagenda (Taman Mahsuri 2), is a mixed development project comprising 4136 units of mixed residential and commercial properties. First batch of 1125 units houses and 82 units shop houses will be developed and launch during 2007 financial year. The remaining will contribute to the next financial year.

Plantation Division

Oil palm plantation, currently fresh fruit production increase significantly 44% to 13709 metric tons compare to 9533 metric tons last financial year. This division contributes RM2.7 millions of pre-tax profit for the 2006 financial year.

Property Management Division

Rental from housing stock and office space in Wisma Keladi contributed RM1.6 millions for the 2006 financial year.

Financial Performance:

Years 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average
ROE 4.82 6.59 7.08 8.22 9.82 7.36 < 10
ROA 4.25 5.81 6.31 6.54 8.46 7.22 < 10

Total Liabilities : Equity = 7.6 : 92.4 (Strong performance)
D/E Ratio = 0
P/E Ratio = 6.9
DY = 61.2

Average Revenue growth rate = -3.33% (5 years)
Average Earnings growth rate = 76.71% (5 years)

Supporting Value:

1. NTA (as at Oct 2007)= RM0.22 = RM 0.22(current price as at 31/12/2007)

2. The management level staff starting to increase company share.

3. No long-long term dept.

4. More than RM45million cash on hand. (rich cash flow)

5. Kulim is one of the famous industrial & ICT area in Kedah, many famous manufacturers and companies build their plant at there. A combanition of commercial properties (such as factories and shop lots) plus residential properties from Keladi Maju Berhad is a good strategy to ensure the demand of the residential housing, because with the rent or sell of especially factory has create a demand of residential housing as well for that area. The increasing demand of residential housing will also create a demand for the shop lots as well.

6. Although the average ROE for Keladi Maju not exceed 10%, but it shows a 5 years consistent increase. It also shows an improvement of the efficiency of the management team and company strategy.

7. The incresing prices for palm oil will directly improve the performance of plantation division in the near future.

8. In view of the removal of the real property gain tax (RPGT), expecting high buying interest on its residential and commercial properties.

9. Northern Corridor Economic Region (NCER) (Malay: Wilayah Ekonomi Koridor Utara) is a new economic development corridor in Malaysia. This programme is a Government initiative to accelerate economic growth and elevate income levels in the north of Penisular Malaysia - encompassing the states of Perlis, Kedah, Pulau Pinang and the north of Perak. The property industry in the north region will benefited from the project as well.

10. Thanks to the government new policy, EPF holders can withdraw their savings from their account 2 to part finance their first or second house. It will increase the demand of the property investment industry.

11. Remaining 2929 units of residential and commercial property development for Taman Lagenda not yet take into account in the 2007 financial year. It will be a big income contribution for next financial year. There are also remaining 55 units of mixed properties in Taman Mahsuri, 36 units of factoriesvvin Kawasan Perindustrian Makmur and 24 units of houses launched in Taman Cili are not take into account in the same financial year.

Upcoming Projects:

1. In FY08, the company is planning to launch 1,125 and 82 units of residential and commercial properties respectively in Taman Lagenda. The new project is located at Padang Serai (Kulim) and is an extension of Taman Mahsuri. We have already factored in the projected contributions from Taman Lagenda in our earnings model.

2. The management plan to purchase lands in the Klang Valley area, in order for the company to start their property development in Klang Valley.

Project Risk:

1. Risks to our recommendation and target price include a slump in property demand in Kulim and/or CPO prices. Being a geographically focused mass developer implies that KM’s earnings hinge heavily on the economic condition of a single region.

2. The increasing material cost around the world will affect the profit margin of the company.

Conclusion:

Keladi Maju Berhad is a company with strong cash flow with very low debt ratio. The company currently achieve a 5 years increasing in the ROE. It had showed an improvement effeciecy of the management team. The company also benefited from the increasing CPO price in the market. With the new government policy and project is also a great affect on the property industry in the future. As a conclusion, Keladi Maju Berhad is an affordable and a undervalue stock for the young investor in the current market.

Undervalue Stock

2007-12-29T16:20:00.000+08:00

在现今的牛市股票市场里，大部分公司的股价都已超过公司的原有价值或超值了。许多股项的p/e值已超过KLCI的平均p/e,15.有些股项的p/e值更远超KLCI平均p/e的一到两倍。有此可见，可选股项已大受限制了。

而对长期投资者或基本投资者来说，就必须更选择性的研究并找出市场里被牛市所遗漏的“珍珠”，进行投资，让资产增值。

被选的股项必须能抗通膨利率的侵蚀，能在熊市中安然度过，保护投资者的资本与财产。因此管理层的素质是非常重要。他们必须在市场萎缩时或公司面临困境时护航，保持公司盈利，或找寻更好的投资方向，让公司度过难关。这也是为什么巴菲特先生那么注重一间公司管理层素质的原因。（通过ROE值也能让我们观察出管理层的效率）

本人会陆续为大家发掘更多的“珍珠”。希望大家也能给于意见，互相学习。

谢！

Mega First Corporation Berhad (3069) MFCB

2007-12-28T15:21:00.000+08:00

Business Summary:

Mega First Corporation through its subsidiaries, builds, owns, and operates power plants. It also involves in the engineering, design, and manufacture of components for automotive, transportation, building, and security industries. The company also engages in quarrying limestone, and manufacturing and trading of fine calcium carbonate powder and lime based products. In addition, it engages in the property management and development operations; and trades in building and construction materials, and food and beverages. Further, the company provides maintenance services for power plants, management consultancy services, and secretarial services. It operates in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. Mega First Corporation is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Power Division

Mega First Corporation currently owns two power plants, one at Shaoxing China (60%), another one at Tawau (51%). The power division contribute 90% of the net income for 2006 financial year.

Property Division

Mega First Corporation is also involved in developing residential properties, namely Taman Bertam Jaya in Malacca and Taman Mawar in Sepang, Selangor. This division also joint venture with IJM in the "PJ8" project (beside the Federal High Way, near to PJ Hilton). This division also involve in the shophouse project at Greenhouse, Ipoh.

Engineering Division

Through its subsidiaries in Malaysia, UK and South Africa, MFCB is engaged in the engineering, designing and manufacturing of automotive and transport components and the manufacturing and trading of security seals. (This division remain weak, internal restucturing exercise in progress)

Limestone Division

The company undertakes quarrying activities and is involved in the manufacture of quicklime, hydrated lime and calcium carbonate products via its 99.6% owned subsidiary, Syarikat Cheng Sun Quarry Sdn Bhd and its 38.5% owned associate, Rock Chemical Industries (Malaysia) Bhd.

Financial Performance:

Years 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average
ROE 12.58 11.84 11.78 11.17 14.65 12.40 > 10
ROA 4.46 4.49 4.32 4.58 6.78 4.92< 10

Total Liabilitiees : Equity = 34 : 66
D/E Ratio = 0.11
P/E Ratio = 7.01
DY = 3.6
Average Revenue growth rate = 32.54% > 10 (5 years)
Average Earnings growth rate = 18.35% > 10 (5 years)

Supporting Value:

1. NTA (as at 30/9/2007) = RM1.48 > RM 1.38 (current price as at 27/12/2007)

2. Share buyback starting from March of 2007 until present.

3. The management level staff especially the director level of MFCB constantly increasing or acquired their shares in MFCB.

4. MFCB constantly come out with Employee Share Option Scheme in year 2007.

5. MFCB have a strong management team who have experience background in utility, property & other field. (can also refer to the strong ROE)

6. RM100million cash on hand. (rich cash flow)

7. Pickup in the property sector.

Upcoming Project:

1. Mega First Corporation is considering taking in a partner to undertake the proposed RM1.05 billion hydroelectric project in Laos given the huge cost involved. The Laos plant is expected to supply power to the Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam power grids due to its location in southern Laos. It would be set up on a build, operate and transfer basis for a 25 to 30 year concession period. Mega First had already signed a memorandum of understanding with the Laos government for a 240mw hydroelectric power plant along the Mekong River. The feasibility studies are being finalised with a report to be out very soon.

Though operating in places such as Cambodia or Laos could be deem as risky, and may explain why there are not many institutional followers of the stock: not many are aware that the controlling shareholders (Goh family) have been running a huge beer brewing and distribution business from Cambodia for the longest time. Hence its like operating from their backyard.

2. Mega First Corporation was also reactivating feasibility studies on its 50:50 copper mine JV with Australian mining company Perilya Ltd in Ranau, Sabah. The copper mine project had had been shelved some five to six years ago as world copper prices then did not make it feasible. With the current high prices, feasibility studies would be undertaken on setting up a mine in Ranau.

Project Risk:

1. The Don Sahong dam project in Laos is a project that the Laos people strongly oppose, as the dam will block fish migrations from Laos to Cambodia and negatively impact the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.If this project goes ahead, it will face fierce opposition from local people, as well as people in the neighbouring countries of Thailand and Cambodia, which will also be negatively impacted by the project. It will be the first mainstream Mekong River dam ever built outside of China, and so will have many serious negative impacts.
www.worldfishcenter.org/resource_centre/DonSahong-final.pdf

2. The reactivating of the copper mine cost RM349 million. It will be a huge investmen & burden for the corporation.

Conclusion:

Mega First Corporation is a company which recover from a huge dept 4 to 5 years ago. The corporation currently achieve a 5 years ROE of above 10%, with a healthy cash flow. It had showed a high effeciecy of the management team. This is one of consideration as a fundamental investor. The stability growth of the power, limestone and property divisions, Mega First Corporation will achieve a good result in the coming year. (Especailly the property division, PJ8 will be launch by mid-end of 2008 & the upcoming projects, assume that the power division contribution remain the same). As a conclusion, Mega First Corporation is a undervalue stock in the current market.

招揽志同道合的基本投资者

2007-12-28T14:56:00.000+08:00

在现今的股票市场里很难找到一群能够互相分享的基本投资者。希望通过此博客能够招揽同道合的基本投资者，组织成一只强大的投资团队，大家互相指导与学习，向财务自由的目标迈进。

注：若发现此博客的分析有误请给于珍贵的意见或分析。此博客的所有分析只供参考。